Feedback loops: The big unknown
Posted: Friday, May 26th, 2006 by damnHippyTags: Climate Change, Predictions, Science
The reality of feedback loops may well be the biggest problem facing climatologists when it comes to predicting the effects of climate change. The Earth is a hugely complex system of intertwined systems, which we as a species are just barely beginning to understand. Nobody is capable of modeling all the Earth's processes with any sort of concrete reliability. There are just too many unknown variables in the equation.
The biggest danger, at least in my opinion, are the processes that result in a feedback loop. Feedbacks loops can either be positive, which means they accelerate the rate of change, or they can be negative meaning they counter the effects of change. These are the sort of processes that could result in global warming triggering an ice age for example. This was the premise of the movie The Day After Tomorrow, although the movie was a little dramatic.
The thing is, we do not know about all the potential feedback loops that exist in our environment, and what it takes to trigger them. It is incredibly foolish to mess with the balance of our planet because we just barely have a clue about what can happen. ANY change that affects the balance of our planets systems is just begging for trouble. This is the point that oil companies and irresponsible corporations are missing. Or perhaps they think it's worth betting the future of our lives on Earth in exchange for a temporary increase in profit margins. Either way they're acting like the guy in the photo above.
Recently some researchers from the University of California at Berkely came to the conclusion that our current global warming estimates may be grossly underestimated. The problem is that current models to not account for the effect that slight warming will have on the release of greenhouse gases from natural sources. They analysed ice core samples and discovered that in the past, when temperatures rose so did the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This created a positive feedback loop which created even more warming and hence more release of greenhouse gases. It's almost like the Earth is matching the greenhouse emissions we put in the atmosphere, but this is no fundraiser.
When talking about predicting the future intensity of global warming, one of the researchers had this to say regarding feedback loops.
"…all the major feedbacks are positive, meaning they would increase warming, and we know of no significant negative feedbacks that would slow warming." (MongaBay.com)
The debate shouldn't be whether global warming is real. It should be about how intense it's effects will be and how we can deal with the consequences. Sticking our fingers in our ears and pretending it's not really happening is not an intelligent strategy.
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